New demographics predict that Victoria and New South Wales will be the only states not to benefit from interstate migration, as people move elsewhere in response to COVID lockdowns.
- Sydney is expected to lose 38,900 people in 2021-2022 and Melbourne 32,000 people
- Queensland is expected to have the largest net migration
- National population expected to grow to 29.3 million in 2031-32
The Center for Population released its annual population snapshot, including how people have moved between states and territories this year.
But it’s based on data through March 2021, ahead of major Delta outbreaks and lockdowns in NSW, Victoria and ACT.
Data on the actual impact of the most recent closures will be available early next year.
In its report, the Center said the drop in arrivals to Victoria during Melbourne’s second lockdown in 2020 and then the increase in departures after the lockdown ended was a trend they expected to see again for States that had recently been locked out.
“Net interstate migration is expected to increase for all states except New South Wales and Victoria in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022,” he said.
“Queensland is expected to continue to record the largest net gains in interstate migration, as it has avoided prolonged lockdowns and has historically been a popular destination for interstate migrants.
“These assumptions have led to a forecast for the largest annual net outflow of residents for Sydney in 2021-2022 of 38,900 people. Melbourne is expected to record a net outflow of around 32,000 people.”
The Center also said there was a higher than usual migration of people to South Australia and Western Australia which correlated with the end of Melbourne’s second lockdown.
But the Center said the “shock” of interstate migration is expected to be temporary, and the usual patterns of movement, which see most people moving to NSW and Victoria, are expected to return in 2022-2023.
So much so that by 2024-2045 Victoria is set to be the fastest growing state again, with Melbourne set to overtake Sydney as the largest city before the end of the decade.
The problems of migration abroad
As polled and predicted by the government, out-migration – which has been the engine of our population growth – is not expected to pick up until late next year or early 2023.
“Migration abroad is expected to bottom out in 2020-2021 with a net outflow of 100,000 people,” he said.
“As border restrictions and quarantine provisions are relaxed, net migration abroad is expected to pick up to a lower net outflow of 41,000 in 2021-2022.
“It is then expected to return to net inflows of 180,000 in 2022-2023 and 213,000 in 2023-24 before returning to pre-COVID-19 trends with net inflows of 235,000 from 2024-25. “.
As for our population as a whole, it is expected to grow from 25.7 million people today to 29.3 million in 2031-32.
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