New NPG Forum paper discusses trajectory of population growth | News


ALEXANDRIA, Va., February 15, 2022 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ — Negative Population Growth has published a new article in its Forum series: Will 2022 be the first year of negative population growth in the United States? Written by Nathaniel Gronewold, this article discusses the potential trajectory of population growth in the United States during this period of historically low birth rates and a global pandemic, positing: “U.S. population growth could slow or even turn negative in 2022 as may America begin the third year of the COVID -19 pandemic.” Beginning with the basics, Gronewold presents two highlights to the reader, sharing, “Neither me nor negative population growth celebrates the cause of this demographic downturn. No one is – there are no words to describe the devastation caused by the pandemic and the amount of suffering caused by COVID-19. The pandemic is a crisis. A barely growing or even declining population is not.

Next, Gronewold examines recent research on life expectancies, birth rates and national migration patterns, then contradicts predictions that post-pandemic life will thrive and the population will grow again. After noting that life expectancies and birth rates are expected to rebound to pre-pandemic averages, he adds that we are still living through the pandemic and that the final numbers – ultimately – may not reflect the assumptions of the researchers. Looking at the great COVID-19 migration, Gronewold describes moving from place to place as “nothing new”, explaining: “Los Angeles lost people in places like Texas, Arizonaand Utah for the better part of a decade, but LA still saw a net gain in residents from 2010 to 2020 due to natural increase and contributions from immigration.”

To further disrupt the media frenzy surrounding current demographic trends, Gronewold presents the possible scenario where calls for increased immigration become louder due to the narrative that expanding the country’s population is the only way for the economy to grow. He then introduces a potential sticking point, sharing that for the storyline to work, “one has to assume that immigrants actually want to come to our shores.” Adding: “America’s reputation abroad has taken a hit lately and potential immigrants have other options.” Returning to the importance of birth rates in the population conversation, Gronewold points to the Great Recession of 2008-2009, arguing, “Birth rates have not recovered from the last economic crisis a decade ago. .” He goes on to say, “I suspect we could see the same thing happen in the years following the COVID-19 crisis – the US birth rate may recover somewhat but will likely fall back again over time.”

Gronewold then persuades the reader to see the change in migration – not as a trend – but as a direct response to population density, stating, “The pandemic has exacerbated or accelerated a pre-existing trend of Americans leaving cities or states more expensive in favor of less populated urban centers and more affordable housing. Gronewold is then able to highlight a critical point that is not getting the attention it deserves by saying, “The exodus of New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, and other expensive urban hubs do not make life more affordable in these cities. It does, however, drive up the cost of living in the new urban magnets of denver, Austin, Atlantaand other fast-growing metropolitan areas.”

In conclusion, Gronewold considers the magnitude of the many moving parts that constitute the reasons for population growth in the United States, and then assumes that negative population growth in the United States is possible, telling the reader: “While epidemiologists believe that this pandemic will eventually die out and become something like seasonal flu, in the short term, we cannot ignore what has happened over the past two years. Nevertheless, there is a silver lining. This author believes that lower, slower, and ultimately negative population growth in the U.S. is both desirable and inevitable Reaching that milestone this year gives us the opportunity (albeit temporary) to demonstrate how all that is badly done by population growth – growing economic insecurity, loss of biodiversity, global warming, etc. – could be corrected by its opposite.

Founded in 1972, NPG is a national nonprofit organization dedicated to educating the American public and political leaders about the harmful effects of population growth. We believe that our country is already vastly overpopulated in terms of the long-term carrying capacity of its resources and environment. NPG advocates the adoption of its Proposed National Population Policy, with the goal of eventually stabilizing the U.S. population at a sustainable level – well below that of today. We don’t just identify problems, we provide solutions. For more information visit our website at NPG.orgfollow us on facebook @NegativePopulationGrowth or follow us on Twitter @npg_org.

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Craig Lewisnegative population growth, 703-370-9510, media@npg.org

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SOURCE Negative population growth

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